ABREL Q2 FY27 Earnings Call: FY27 Pre-Sales to Fall Short, Rs. 15,000 Cr FY29 Target Reaffirmed

ABREL held its Q2 FY27 earnings call on October 26, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Strong H1 Financials, But Q2 Pre-sales Remain Modest

• H1 FY 2026-2027 total income up 309% YoY to Rs.355 cr — Q2 FY 2026-2027 alone was Rs.268 cr, up 755% YoY; collections rose 39% YoY to Rs.1,465 cr in H1 (Q2: Rs.752 cr, +47% YoY), with cumulative collections crossing the Rs.10,000 cr milestone.
• Q2 FY 2026-2027 net pre-sales of Rs.298 cr — Birla Taranya and Birla Nyara (MMR) were the largest contributors; management tracks only net sales and does not disclose gross sales or quarterly cancellation figures.
• Project profitability held up in H1 FY 2026-2027 — Birla Tisya recognized EBITDA of Rs.181 cr at a 28% margin; Birla Navya contributed Rs.39 cr at a 35% margin; project-level EBITDA margins range 25-30% across projects.
• Credit outlook improved from AA stable to AA positive — the company is at net debt zero, with strong cash balances including mutual funds.
• Accounting nuance flagged — all sales, marketing and overheads are charged to P&L (even for unlaunched projects), so the collections-vs-construction-spend cash flow is not like-for-like with project-level margins; interest is mainly inventorized in consolidated books, hence nil finance cost for Q2 FY 2026-2027.

Tower C Redesign Adds Rs.3,000 Cr GDV, But Defers the Launch

• Tower C GDV up Rs.3,000 crores; net GDV addition Rs.1,900 crores — achieved by amalgamating the original Niara plot with the plot acquired from the Wadias and loading FSI from the adjacent plot onto Tower C, with no consideration paid; the revised plan carries ~Rs.1,900 cr of net GDV and is expected to be highly accretive to profitability.
• Launch deferment may dent FY 2026-2027 pre-sales — management framed this as a deliberate choice of long-term shareholder value over near-term launch timelines; Niara is now expected to be market-ready by Q2 FY 2027-2028.
• Niara Phase 1 (Tower A) revenue recognition — no EBITDA recognized to date; RERA completion date is March 28, 2028, with revenue split partly in FY 2027-2028 and partly in FY 2028-2029 depending on possession; project margins are 40% and above.
• Illustrative EBITDA math — on an analyst's hypothetical of Rs.3,000 crore Phase 1 top line with 80% possession, CFO Keyur Shah concurred roughly Rs.1,000 crore of EBITDA could be booked in FY 2027-2028, split between FY 2027-2028 and FY 2028-2029; management declined to quantify the split, with "maybe half" of customers taking possession by March 2028.
• Commercial component in planning — a new 1.3 million sq ft commercial building (part of Birla Niara) is at design stage; management expects ~9-10 months for approvals and ~4 years for construction, starting only once all approvals are received.

FY27 Pre-sales to Fall Short; Rs.15,000 Cr Commitment Shifts to FY29

• CEO declined short-term guidance; FY 2026-2027 pre-sales will "not be Rs.8,000 crore for sure" — analyst Biplab Debbarma (MK Global) estimates FY 2026-2027 pre-sales of Rs.6,000-7,000 crore, which he flagged may fall short of FY 2025-2026 pre-sales.
• Management reaffirmed the long-term commitment — CEO K. T. Jitendran stated: "We stand firm to our commitment of reaching pre-sales of Rs.15,000 crores by FY29"; analyst Akash Gupta (Nomura) noted this expectation has shifted from FY28 to probably FY29, and cut his own FY27 pre-sales estimate from Rs.80 billion to roughly Rs.50-60 billion.
• Areca final tower launch deferred — management declined to pre-pone the launch into FY 2026-2027, stating it can "extricate much higher value" by launching at a later date after construction progress on already-launched towers; Vashi confirmed for FY 2027-2028, not FY 2026-2027.
• Launch pipeline for FY 2027-2028 — Vashi (finalized), new phases of Taranya, new phases of Punya, and the newly finalized Hinjewadi (Pune) project, which management hopes to launch by Q4 FY 2027-2028; the Khar launch is expected in Jan-Feb of FY 2027-2028.
• Sustenance sales flagged as light — Akash Gupta (Nomura) flagged ~Rs.3 billion of quarterly sustenance sales against Rs.19 billion of unsold inventory in Worli and Rs.10 billion in Thane; management countered that 78% of overall inventory is sold with only 22% left as of Q2 FY 2026-2027, and acknowledged one or two projects, notably Birla Mridha, are "not firing."
• Execution credentials cited — a project was delivered 4-5 months ahead of the RERA timeline and committed customer dates, with revenue recognized ~4 months ahead of schedule and an NPS score of 95%.

~Rs.6,200 Cr GDV Added in FY27; Rs.10,000 Cr BD Guidance Reaffirmed

• FY 2026-2027 new-project GDV additions of ~Rs.6,200 crore — two deals totaling ~Rs.4,200 crore GDV (Bashi at Rs.2,600 crore and Kinjawadi at Rs.1,600 crore) plus Rs.1,900 crore of incremental GDV from Niara Tower C; including the Rs.1,600 crore Khar deal in March (FY 2025-2026), ~Rs.8,000 crore was added over the last few months.
• CEO "pretty confident" of crossing the Rs.10,000 crore BD guidance — the guidance was set at the beginning of FY 2026-2026's successor year (FY 2026-2027), with ~Rs.6,000 crore already achieved in H1 FY 2026-2027; management is "firmly positive" on meeting the Rs.10,000+ crore land-spend guidance.
• ~Rs.7,000 crore of joint development added over the last 6-7 months — CFO Keyur Shah said management is confident of adding another Rs.3,000-5,000 crore and on track for its Rs.10,000-15,000 crore JD addition target (period unspecified); acquisition outlay expected at ~15-17% of project GDV, in line with historical levels.
• Hinjewadi JDA finalized in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — a 5.6-acre prime residential parcel in Hinjewadi Phase 1, Pune, with GDV potential of ~Rs.1,650 cr, revenue share of 75% to the company and 25% to the partner, and upfront payment of ~Rs.50 crores; Hinjewadi project margin indicated at ~30% based on underwriting rates.
• Guided Rs.3,000-4,000 crore GDV addition by end of FY 2026-2027 — to be spread across NCR, Pune, Mumbai (MMR) and Bangalore, not MMR-centric, per management's clarification.
• Q2 FY 2026-2027 land spend of ~Rs.260 crore — comprised deferred payment for the Thane land and deposits paid for deals, partly offset by some deposits recovered.

Premium Resilient, Sub-Rs.1 Cr Weakening; Some Project Soft Spots

• Demand bifurcation by ticket size — MD K.T. Jitendran said markets above Rs.1 crore remain very strong and resilient across Bangalore, Mumbai, Pune and NCR, while the market below Rs.1 crore is contracting and showing signs of weakness.
• Industry context (Q2 FY27) — MMR remained the largest residential market with sales of ~Rs.59,500 cr (+11% YoY); MMR, Bengaluru, Pune and NCR together accounted for ~65% of pan-India sales by value; commercial office leasing was ~21 msf in Q2 FY27 (+6% YoY), with GCCs at ~41% of leasing.
• Mridha slowdown — the plotted development launched in March 2026 is largely investor-driven and has been impacted by current global market sentiment; almost 160 plots sold to date; management indicated Mridha should come up for revenue recognition in FY 2027-2028 — a hedged expectation, not a commitment.
• Birla Anayu clarification — CFO Keyur Shah corrected the analyst's premise: Anayu comprises only 8 apartments, of which 5 are already sold as of the Q2 FY 2026-2027 call.
• NCR cancellations scrutinized — analyst-flagged Birla Arika cancellations of Rs.114 crores in Q2 FY 2026-2027 (H1: Rs.120 crores); management noted 11 cancellations to date are a 50-50 mix of customer cancellations and company terminations for non-payment, with 6 apartments resold at ~Rs.2,000/sq ft higher prices; Birla Pravah's entire ~Rs.1,850 crores inventory is sold out and all 3 cancellations were rebooked at higher prices.
• Yara sell-down is inventory-driven, not demand-driven — H1 FY 2026-2027 sustenance sales of ~6 units vs a historical run-rate of 15-25 apartments/year; 4 cancelled flats were resold, adding Rs.15 crore of extra revenue in H1; Tower A 401 of 413 units sold, Tower B 119 of 128 units sold as of Q2 FY 2026-2027.

Rental Roadmap to Rs.1,500 Cr as a Cycle Hedge; Prudent Leverage Stance

• Rental income roadmap to beyond Rs.1,500 crores annually (period unspecified) — up from the current annual rental base of ~Rs.150 crores (Q2 FY 2026-2027); building blocks include existing rentals moving beyond Rs.200 crores over time and Century Bhavan redevelopment adding Rs.400-450 crores of additional rent (both period unspecified).
• Commercial income as an explicit hedge — CFO Keyur Shah noted that with the residential upcycle having run for a long time, "the probability of a reversal keeps increasing," and management wants to lift commercial portfolio annual income from Rs.150 crore to Rs.1,500 crore (period unspecified).
• Commercial annuity capex of Rs.1,400-1,500 crore — to be funded through a combination of debt and equity, spread over the next 4 years with spend commencing FY 2026-2027 (design work, approval applications and FSI premium payments); FY 2026-2027 construction cost guided at ~Rs.1,300 crore for the full financial year.
• Worli plot excluded from the rental target — CFO Keyur Shah confirmed the Rs.1,500 crores figure does not include the 2.3 million sq ft (10-acre) Worli plot acquired from Vardia Groups; the Worli estimate is based on ~1.3 million sq ft of commercial development to be launched initially, while the full 2.3 million sq ft plot is yet to be launched or have its use decided.
• Leverage stance — Keyur Shah said the company is "not averse" to gearing (currently net debt zero), with any leverage dependent on acquisition opportunities; management reiterated it will remain prudent on business development.
• Macro backdrop flagged — RBI revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast upward to 7.1% after Q1 FY27 GDP growth of 7.8%; headline CPI inflation rose from 4.45% in July to 5.4% in September; management flagged geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices and tighter financial conditions as external headwinds.