Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX) Q2 FY27 Earnings Call: Targets 15% Volume Growth in FY27, Market Coupling Pushed to FY29

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd held its Q2 FY27 earnings call on October 29, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Double-Digit Growth on Price and Volume Tailwinds

• Revenue of Rs.203 crore (+10.7% YoY) — up from Rs.183.3 crore in Q2 FY26; PAT of Rs.139 crore (+12.9% YoY) vs Rs.123 crore in Q2 FY26.
• Electricity traded volume of 39.7 billion units (+12.7% YoY) in Q2 FY27; H1 FY27 volumes at 77 billion units (+14.2% YoY over H1 FY26).
• RTM crossed DAM for the second consecutive quarter — ~42% of IEX electricity volume in Q2 FY27, with RTM volumes of ~16.5 billion units (+10.5% YoY) and a record single-day volume of 315 million units in September 2026.
• Weak monsoon lifted prices sharply — DAM buy bids up ~120% YoY; average DAM price Rs.5.72/unit (+46% YoY), RTM Rs.5.24/unit (+49% YoY), touching Rs.20/unit in some blocks; later cyclones/unseasonal rains pushed RTM prices near zero in multiple blocks.
• REC volumes fell to 15.3 lakh in Q2 FY27 from 44 lakh in Q2 FY26 — management said REC is no longer a significant revenue creator for IEX.
• H1 FY27 solar-hour prices averaged Rs.2.3/unit — creating arbitrage of over Rs.6.5/unit for 2-hr (2-cycles/day) and 4-hr (1-cycle/day) BESS.

Dominant DAM/RTM Share; Coupling Timeline Extends

• DAM/RTM market share of ~99.2-99.3% in Q2 FY27 — CMD Satyanarayan Goel noted share in these segments is consistently 99%+.
• Market coupling implementation "definitely not" happening in calendar 2026 — management estimates it may take another 1.5-2 years (around FY 2028-2029), dependent on the content and implementation approach of CERC's final regulations, which are not yet notified.
• CERC's April 2026 draft regulation proposes Grid India as the market coupling operator — no further development in Q2 FY27; APTEL and the Supreme Court declined to intervene, observing coupling can only be implemented after regulations are issued and IEX is not yet an aggrieved party.
• CMD Goel clarified there is "no proposal of separating clearing function from the exchange" — clearing and settlement will continue as before.
• TAM share has hovered around 35% for many years — per Rohit Bajaj, this is not discount-dependent; discoms tend to bid across all exchanges and TAM is not highly liquid.
• Management does not apprehend buyer shifting to other exchanges — citing 2-3 years of retention initiatives (technology deployment, product development, API integration, customer engagement); DAM-to-RTM shifting is price/availability-driven and coupling "has no role to play" in it.
• Management acknowledged some DAM-to-RTM cannibalization — RTM prices are consistently lower (sellers there are "desperate sellers") and RTM allows better demand estimation, so RTM growth is not purely organic.

RTM Structural Growth; Seasonal DAM Softness Reversing

• RTM volume CAGR of ~30-35% since its June 2020 launch vs DAM CAGR of only ~4-5% (in fact 2%); current mix: RTM ~41% of total exchange volume vs DAM ~35% as of Q2 FY27.
• DAM sluggishness is a seasonal phenomenon — typically 3-4 months a year during monsoon, discoms shift into bilateral contracts when evening-hour availability is uncertain; in FY 2026-2027, El Niño expectations from April-May 2026 drove a bilateral shift visible from July-August 2026.
• Recovery under way by end-October 2026 — prices corrected to ~Rs.4/unit with adequate availability in both DAM and RTM, and volumes have started increasing again in both segments.
• FDRE overbuild feeds exchange volumes — per management, citing discussions with developers, FDRE PPA developers must create in some cases 4x-5x the energy to be delivered per contract profile, and this surplus volatile output is brought to the exchange platform.
• Majority of ~4 GW of BESS capacity commissioned in India to date is merchant-route — developers bring this capacity to the exchange to capture the best available arbitrage.
• Discoms contribute about 80% of total buy-side volumes (Q2 FY27) — per Rohit Bajaj, the majority participate directly as IEX members rather than through trader members; top 10 big states are generally the biggest buyers.
• Coal supply remains tight — domestic production largely flat at 445 million tonnes in H1 FY27, inventory ~8 days as of 22 October 2026 with ~100 plants at a critical 3-day level; the Ministry of Power invoked Section 11 of the Electricity Act directing 100+ captive coal-fired plants and CGPL's imported coal-based plant to maximize generation till 31 December 2026.

IGX Scales Sharply; IPO On Track; Diversification Advances

• IGX gas volumes of 42 million MMBTU in Q2 FY27 (+160% YoY) — H1 FY27 at ~70 million MMBTU (+71% YoY); ~30% of Q2 FY27 volumes from the power sector.
• IGX PAT of Rs.23.4 crore in Q2 FY27 (+144% YoY vs Rs.9.6 crore) — H1 FY27 PAT of Rs.39.7 crore (+67.4% YoY).
• IGX DRHP filed in July FY 2026-2027 — per PNGRB regulations, IEX must lower its holding from 47.3% to 25% by end of December 2026; IPO process remains on track.
• ICX issued ~52 lakh IRECs in Q2 FY27 (+38.4% YoY) — H1 FY27 at 94 lakh (+15% YoY) with revenue of Rs.2.3 crore (+20.8% YoY); ICX H1 FY27 profit at Rs.2.7 crore, with a Rs.4.7 crore FY 2025-2026 profit referenced in the Q&A.
• Indian Coal Exchange Ltd (wholly owned) applied for a license with the Coal Controller Organization in September 2026 under the Coal Exchange Rules 2026; a mineral exchange opportunity is being explored after the Ministry of Mines notified final regulations.

BESS Tailwinds, RTM Redesign Risk, Carbon Market Pending

• CERC amendments provide ISTS charges waiver up to 25 years for BESS integrated with renewable/hybrid generating stations (expected to reduce trading costs for BESS players); CERC identified GDAM as a green power source for BESS/PSP.
• CEA draft norms require co-located ESS (min 2-hr duration, ≥10% of installed capacity) for solar/onshore wind commissioned after July 1, 2027, rising to 4-hr storage for projects commissioned after July 1, 2029.
• CERC discussion paper proposes cutting the RTM auction window from 15 to 5 minutes and gate closure from 75 to 50 minutes (draft IEGC public comments closed); per the CERC staff paper, if RTM bidding time is reduced to 5 minutes and market clearing time to 10 minutes from 1st April FY 2027-2028, management believes timelines will be further tight and coupling in RTM is "definitely going to be challenging".
• BEE, in consultation with Grid India, issued draft procedures for carbon credit certificate trading under the compliance mechanism; IEX has filed a petition with CERC for approval of carbon credit certificate trading on exchanges.
• Product pipeline awaits CERC approval — extending term-ahead market contracts from 3 to 11 months, a green RTM contract, and peak-time and peak RTM segments.
• Analyst's claim of a CRC draft cutting TAM ceiling price from 2 paise to 1.5 paise was rebutted — CMD Satyanarayan Goel stated there is no such draft regulation and the company has not heard anything about it.

15% Volume Growth Target for FY27; Buyback Under Evaluation

• Management expects IEX to achieve a 15% volume growth rate in FY 2026-2027 — consistent with its historical ~14-15% growth; no quantified volume outlook was provided for FY 2027-2028 or FY 2028-2029 despite the analyst's question.
• Management expects IGX to achieve 40-50% YoY volume growth for FY 2026-2027 — with reasonably good growth also expected in H2 FY 2026-2027; ICX revenue growth of 20-25% expected in FY 2026-2027 (operations currently limited to registry services).
• Buyback "definitely evaluating" — Joint MD Rohit Bajaj said the option remains open; CFO Vineet Harlalka noted buyback taxation changes a couple of years back had made buybacks non-incentivizing but, with those reversed, the proposal will be put before the board as and when the board decides; CMD Goel said the board "will definitely consider" a buyback given the low stock price.
• Dividend payout currently at 65% of profit — CFO Harlalka noted IEX has regularly paid ~60-65% of profits as dividend, with the payout policy to be reviewed going forward (period unspecified); members' margin/float money is regulated and cannot be deployed for distribution.
• Other income presently in the range of 15-18% — CFO Harlalka expects it to remain in that range (period unspecified); float size is not in company control and depends on market volumes and prices. Standalone investments ~Rs.2,170 crore vs shareholder equity ~Rs.1,388 crore as of 30 September 2026.
• Long-term demand backdrop — management cited a power consumption forecast of ~2,700 billion units and peak demand of 388 GW by 2032, and the Ministry of Power revised the thermal capacity addition roadmap from 80 GW by 2032 to 115 GW by 2035; CMD Goel said planned capacity addition should be able to meet the 388 GW peak, with ~80 GW of thermal capacity under construction and battery storage capacity alone expected to exceed 100 GW by 2032.
• REC recovery conditional on price correction — management expects some sidelined buyers to return if REC prices correct by a further 10-15% (period unspecified); REC volumes have fallen drastically in FY 2026-2027 following the recent buyout regulations, with ~80% of FY26 REC volumes from designated consumers whose buying has reduced "a lot".