JSW Cement Q2 FY27 Earnings Call: Volumes Jump 26% YoY, North Turns EBITDA Positive (JSWCEMENT)

JSW Cement Ltd held its Q2 FY27 earnings call on October 27, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Strong Volume-Led Quarter; Realizations Softened QoQ

• Revenue of Rs.1,912 crore, +33% YoY and +0.8% QoQ — consolidated Q2 FY 2026-2027 performance despite monsoon seasonality; total volumes grew 26% YoY to 3.93 million tonnes, among the highest in the industry.
• Cement sales of 2.29 million tonnes, up ~40% YoY — ~13% YoY excluding north operations; GGBS volumes up 7% YoY on project approvals and infrastructure/RMC demand.
• Operating EBITDA of Rs.278 crore (+4% YoY) — EBITDA/tonne at Rs.708; total EBITDA including other income at Rs.295 crore, PBT Rs.101 crore, PAT ~Rs.77 crore, with nearly Rs.20 crore positive contribution from Fujairah.
• Cement realizations at Rs.4,781/tonne, +3% YoY but -3% QoQ — CEO Nilesh Narwekar attributed the divergence vs peers to geographic footprint/mix and denied aggressive price cuts; prices were maintained at Q1 FY 2026-2027 levels.
• North region achieved EBITDA breakeven in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — CFO clarified North posted a Rs.3 crore EBITDA profit; ex-North like-for-like revenue grew 14% YoY with operating EBITDA of Rs.275 crore (Rs.821/tonne).
• Blended fuel cost rose from Rs.1.80/Mcal in Q1 FY 2026-2027 to Rs.1.84/Mcal in Q2 — raw material and power & fuel costs declined 2% QoQ; logistics cost stable QoQ.
• Realization decline is mix-driven — East cement volumes grew ~20% YoY and South ~13% YoY, which management said fundamentally drove the sharper realization decline.

Nagaur Breaks Even; Rs.550-600/t Cost Reduction Ahead

• Nagaur utilization at 75% in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — volumes ~580,000 tonnes including clinker sales (clinker sales of over 1 lakh tonnes from the north); an additional 1 MTPA grinding unit commissioned in October 2026, taking total grinding to ~3.5 MTPA, with volumes and utilization expected to improve in H2 FY 2026-2027.
• North EBITDA guided at Rs.650-700/t in Q4 FY 2026-2027 — the gap vs industry attributed to clinker-line underutilization: grinding capacity of 3.3-3.5 Mn t against clinker capacity of 3.3 Mn t, of which only 2.2-2.3 Mn t is needed for current cement volumes.
• Rs.550-600/t clinker cost reduction from OLBC and WHR — CEO Nilesh Narwekar reiterated this is factored into the North EBITDA number guided for Q4 FY 2026-2027; costs expected broadly in line with industry numbers despite the fuel cost increase.
• WHRS and AFR systems commissioned at Nagaur in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — plus the overland limestone belt conveyor in early October 2026; management expects these to substantially reduce costs in Q3 and Q4 FY 2026-2027.
• North trade mix at 53% in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — management is targeting close to 60% by end of FY 2026-2027; no additional North marketing spend planned beyond the Rs.33 crore spent in Q1 FY 2026-2027.
• Rs.650 crore Nagaur incentive still pending — recognition of the 10-year incentive awaits the entitlement certificate from RIPS, expected around end-October 2026 or November 2026 (Q3 FY 2026-2027); revenue will be recognized once the certificate is received.

October Hikes Across Zones; Company Remains a Price Taker

• Non-trade price increases effective October FY 2026-2027 — South Rs.15-20/bag, East Rs.25-30/bag, West Rs.10/bag, North Rs.20/bag; trade channel increase of Rs.10-15/bag seen only in the East, with other regions yet to reflect increases.
• East trade prices up only Rs.15/bag vs Rs.25-30/bag non-trade — the Rs.15/bag trade increase has just commenced; JSW Cement's East trade ratio stands at 70% (Q2 FY 2026-2027); the exact trade vs non-trade differential was not quantified, with follow-up directed to Investor Relations.
• Management "not seeing the reflection of the price in the market" — CEO Nilesh Narwekar said he was not sure about reversals in other markets but JSW Cement remains a price taker.
• October FY 2026-2027 demand trending fairly positive — across both GGBS and cement in all operating zones; Maharashtra exposure concentrated in the Mumbai urban agglomerate (~110 km from Dolvi), so drought impact limited.
• Management expects the entire price table to move up — pricing power to shift toward the supply side, driven by cost pressure and a general increase in demand (period unspecified); September-October increases expected to sustain amid elevated fuel and input costs.
• Q2 FY 2026-2027 RMC revenue closed at ~Rs.170 crore — management declined to provide full-year FY 2026-2027 RMC revenue guidance, citing that RMC units are still being set up; RMC margins are very minimal at present as volumes have not ramped enough to cover fixed costs.

Penetration Over Price; Growth to Moderate in FY28

• No GGBS price hikes taken in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — management is holding price points to drive GGBS penetration across all applications of concrete; pricing may be revisited only if the OPC-GGBS arbitrage becomes significant (no timeline indicated).
• GGBS share in concrete mix design at ~35-40% (Q2 FY 2026-2027) — management's endeavor is to take it to 50%, the level approved under BIS norms, and potentially beyond in certain applications, with trials and technical conversations underway (period unspecified for the 50% target).
• High single-digit GGBS growth guidance for FY 2026-2027 reaffirmed — growth was 2.3% in Q1 FY 2026-2027 and 7% in Q2 FY 2026-2027; management expects to meet the commitment made at the Q1 FY 2026-2027 call.
• CFO expects a 15% CAGR will not resume in FY 2027-2028 — he expects a small slowdown in FY28, with growth rising thereafter once additional slack comes at both Dolvi and Vijayanagar; high single digit growth confirmed as the right FY28 assumption.
• Minimal GGBS cost pressure in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — only marginal increases in power and fuel costs for drying; slag procurement prices confirmed similar to last year's levels.

Rs.2,300 Cr FY27 Capex Intact; Path to 43.5 MTPA

• Capex of Rs.483 crore in Q2 and Rs.820 crore in H1 FY 2026-2027 (cash outflow basis) — CFO said actual FY27 capex spend will still close at ~Rs.2,200-2,300 crore against the Rs.2,300 crore full-year target; the gap reflects acceptances, with Feb/March FY27 spends likely paid at March-end or April (deferring into FY28).
• ~Rs.7,500 crore of capex still to be spent to reach the 43.5 MTPA capacity target (period unspecified); guided capex of Rs.2,300 crore and Rs.2,000 crore for FY 2027-2028 remains unchanged.
• Expansion timelines: Nagaur 2.5 MTPA by Q4 FY 2027-2028; Fujairah 1.7 MTPA around May-June 2027 (Q1 FY 2027-2028); Dolvi 2 MTPA work starts January 2027 with completion in 20-21 months (≈ Q2-Q3 FY 2028-2029, year corrected from FY28 to FY29 on the call); Vijayanagar work starts December 2026 with ~1.5 years to commissioning (≈ Q1 FY 2028-2029).
• Dolvi phased at 2 MTPA (vs 4 MTPA in the presentation) — so JSW Cement is ready for slag when JSW Steel's blast furnace is ready in calendar 2028; the balance 2 MTPA remains subject to land acquisition and the P&P jetty; Vijayanagar is timed to JSW Steel's ramp-up from 18 to 24 million tonnes.
• GGVS Phase 2 (next 2 million tonnes) to begin only after first-phase utilization reaches 65-70% — a "slight lag" rather than immediate succession (period unspecified); the 2 million-tonne phase under construction is at ~Rs.550 crore vs the original Rs.1,600 crore for 4 million tonnes, with the remaining 2 million tonnes capex "much less" than the residual ~Rs.1,000 crore.
• Net debt at Rs.4,287 crore at end-September 2026; net debt/EBITDA at 3.2x — CFO cited continuing capex in the north and land acquisition; the company has been utilizing IPO cash proceeds with only a marginal additional debt drawdown; mandate to keep net debt/EBITDA below 3x, remaining around 3x for maybe a year or so more (into FY 2027-2028) and definitely below 3x in the coming years (period unspecified).

Fuel Headwind of ~Rs.90/t Offset by Green Power and Price Hikes

• Fuel cost moving from Rs.1.84/Mcal to Rs.2.10/Mcal in Q3 FY 2026-2027 — translating to approximately Rs.90/tonne increase in cement cost in Q3-Q4 FY27 based on the company's clinker factor; pet coke at very high levels will create more cost pressure in Q3 FY 2026-2027.
• Q3 FY 2026-2027 fuel cost guided at Rs.2.10 per Kcal basis — current spot prices: pet coke at Rs.3.08-Rs.3.17, imported coal (US NAP) at ~Rs.3, domestic coal much lower; Q4 FY 2026-2027 fuel cost not guided, with the CFO saying "it all depends" on where prices stand at that point.
• Green energy share expected to rise from 41% to upwards of 50% — 36 MW of wind capacity added in Q2 FY 2026-2027 at Nandial and Vijayanagar; together with the Nagaur WHRS, green power share reached 41% in Q2; management believes the Q3-Q4 FY27 fuel impact "probably be held" via green energy and price increases.
• Fuel secured till December 2026 and early January 2027 — price behavior to be watched after the US midterm election results; fuel flagged as the only remaining cost headwind for H2 FY 2026-2027.
• Clinker-to-cement ratio improved from 1.82 to 1.72 in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — expected to hold around 1.72 and ideally trend lower as OPC sales in the North start declining (period unspecified); Q2 clinker sales of ~0.15-0.16 million tonnes (~120,000-130,000 tonnes from Nagaur, balance from Shiva); no clinker sales from Shiva expected in Q3 FY 2026-2027, with the Nagaur kiln to run at full capacity requiring continued clinker sales at least till December 27.
• Employee cost of Rs.100 crore in Q2 FY 2026-2027 — management confirmed this run rate is set to continue (period unspecified).
• FY 2026-2027 cement volume growth maintained at high-teens% YoY — over FY 2025-2026; management remains constructive on demand for the balance of FY 2026-2027 despite the West Asia crisis and a weaker monsoon, citing healthy GDP growth, sustained government capital expenditure and infrastructure activity.
• Finance cost rose QoQ on repo/MCLR resets and FX losses — CFO said the current impact is marginal but expects more impact going forward, though average debt cost should not see a huge impact given the debt mix; not all foreign debt is hedged, with hedging per the company's forex policy.