NHPC Limited is India's largest hydropower generator, with 9,333 MW of operational capacity and a regulated cost-plus tariff model where water inflow — not fuel — drives volumes. The Q2 print will speak to two things: how the fleet coped with a monsoon that ended 12.6% below normal, and whether the pending CERC tariff orders for Parbati-II and Subansiri moved the needle on the Rs. 450 Cr of under-recovered revenue booked at a conservative 80%.
| Results date | November 04, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Quarter | Q2 FY 2026-2027 |
| Previous quarter revenue | Rs. 3,808.31 Cr (consolidated, Q1 FY27, +18.50% YoY) |
| Previous quarter PAT | Rs. 1,178.09 Cr (consolidated, Q1 FY27, +4.15% YoY) |
| Previous quarter EBITDA margin | 64% (company-reported consolidated EBITDA Rs. 2,518 Cr, Q1 FY27) |
| Market cap | Rs. 78,090.1 Cr |
| CMP | Rs. 77.74 |
As intimated on October 16, 2026, the NHPC board is scheduled to meet on November 4, 2026, to consider the Q2/H1 FY27 financial results. The trading window remained shut from October 1 to November 6, 2026.
The quarter's dominant variable is hydrology: the 2026 southwest monsoon ended at 87% of LPA (759.4 mm vs a normal 868.6 mm, the lowest since 2015), and live storage in 178 key reservoirs stood at 70% as of late September — about 20% below a year earlier, with the northern region where much of NHPC's fleet sits sharply below normal.
That points to generation and PAF pressure versus Q2 FY26, on top of the company-flagged Parbati-II under-generation (1,642 MU against a design energy of 3,125 MU) and FY26's PAF erosion to 74.75% from 78.87%. The capacity ramp, however, is intact: Subansiri Lower Unit #5 (250 MW) was declared commercially operational on October 23, 2026, taking the 2,000 MW project to 1,250 MW (5 of 8 units), with the balance guided for commissioning by December 2026 and FY27 Subansiri generation guided at 5,000–5,500 MU.
The single biggest P&L swing remains regulatory — as of the September 29, 2026 hearings, both the Parbati-II final tariff order and the Subansiri interim tariff were reserved for orders, meaning the 80%-of-estimated-AFC booking regime likely persisted through Q2, keeping the Rs. 450 Cr under-recovery (Parbati-II Rs. 300 Cr + Subansiri Rs. 150 Cr) and Rs. 225 Cr deferred gross-up unreversed.
Finance cost is the other live line: Q1 FY27 finance cost was already up 132.27% YoY at Rs. 605.76 Cr as commissioning pulls interest into the P&L, and the 10-year G-sec firmed from 6.84% at end-July to 7.05% by September 21, 2026. Trade receivables at Rs. 4,354.48 Cr — up 65.61% from the FY26 year-end — against a sharp rise in discom dues across sources add a working-capital watch item.
The upcoming call is likely to centre on CERC order status and reversal mechanics, Q2 generation against the deficit monsoon, and progress on the guided 2,994 MW hydro and 1,190 MW solar additions toward regulated equity of Rs. 30,672–30,723 Cr by end-FY27.
CERC tariff orders and under-recovery reversal: The regulatory swing factor for the P&L.
Generation and PAF vs the deficit monsoon: Water is the fuel, and the season was the worst since 2015.
FY27 commissioning schedule and capex run-rate: The commissioning leg of guidance is broadly on track.
Finance cost and working capital: Commissioning is pulling interest into the P&L while receivables build.
Teesta VI fallout, ESG score and corporate events: Unresolved items from the quarter window.
NHPC is booking 80% of estimated revenue for Parbati-II and Subansiri until CERC notifies the final tariff, which management describes as 'just timing difference'. For 9M FY26, Parbati-II recognition of Rs. 900 Cr against a grossed-up Rs. 1,125 Cr left Rs. 225 Cr deferred, and total under-recovery stood at Rs. 450 Cr.
Management has guided to an expected levelized tariff of about Rs. 7.50/unit on the project's Rs. 28,000 Cr capex. On tariff acceptance, management said '7.50/- is not a very high tariff. It is a peaking power as well as the clean power… we do not foresee any deduction from the CERC side', noting all PPAs are in place.
Management acknowledges that 'cost overrun is very inherent in any hydropower project' due to price-variation clauses, but states that Pakal Dul, Kiru and Kwar are progressing to schedule with 'no material cost overruns reported'. The cost-plus CERC framework allows pass-through of beyond-control costs such as geological surprises and design changes.
The commissioning leg is broadly on track: Subansiri Lower Unit #5 (250 MW) was declared commercially operational on October 23, 2026, taking the project to 1,250 MW of 2,000 MW. The remaining FY27 additions — Subansiri balance units by December 2026, Rangit-IV (Oct/Nov 2026), and Pakal Dul (1,000 MW) and Kiru (624 MW) (December 2026) — feed the guided 2,994 MW hydro addition, though the Parbati-II final CERC order guided 'by June 30, 2026' had not been evidenced as issued as of the October 12 RoP.
Consolidated revenue rose 18.50% YoY to Rs. 3,808.31 Cr in Q1 FY27, driven by the commissioning ramp — Subansiri Lower and Parbati-II together contributed Rs. 938.73 Cr, about 24.6% of revenue. FY26 consolidated revenue was Rs. 11,615.29 Cr, up 11.90% YoY, with generation up ~16% on Parbati-II commissioning.
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