Triveni Turbine Ltd (TRITURBINE) Q2 FY27 Earnings Call: Record Rs. 7.64 Bn Order Booking, Export Slump Drags Margins

Export Slump Drags Revenue and Margins; Domestic Strength Offsets

• Revenue declined 3% YoY to Rs.4.91bn — domestic grew 51.8% to Rs.3.4bn but exports fell 46.6% to Rs.1.51bn; exports dropped to 30% of revenue vs 55% in Q2 FY26.
• EBITDA compressed to Rs.858mn at 17.5% margin (vs 26.3% in Q2 FY26); PAT fell 41.7% to Rs.533mn (10.4% margin); PBT down 39.2% at Rs.757mn.
• Sequentially, revenue grew 11% over Q1 FY27 with margins broadly at Q1 levels, in line with prior call guidance; management characterized Q2 as disappointing but broadly in line with expectations on margin and growth.
• H1 FY27 revenue up 6.4% — domestic sales up over 40%, exports down 24%; product revenue rose 4.4% to Rs.3.43bn in Q2 while aftermarket declined 16.7% to Rs.1.48bn.
• Margin pressure traced to the NTPC order — booked at low to negative margin in Q1 FY26 and executed in Q1 FY27; management said losses are already accounted for on a conservative basis and future claims would only be incremental.
• Export deferments slipped to H2 — freight-related dispatch deferments earlier expected in H1 FY27 pushed to Q3/Q4 FY27, mostly Middle East customers; pending quantum not disclosed.

Record Quarterly Booking; Aftermarket Book More Than Doubles

• Record Q2 FY27 order booking of Rs.7.64bn, up 17.2% YoY — export orders up over 49% (48% of total vs 38% in Q2 FY26); product orders up 32.5% to Rs.6.01bn; domestic orders down 2.5% at Rs.3.79bn.
• H1 FY27 order booking up 12.2% at Rs.13.33bn — export orders up 51.6% to Rs.7.52bn (56% share) on strength across North American, European, Southeast Asian and Turkish markets.
• Closing order book at Rs.24.53bn, up 10.5% YoY — aftermarket component more than doubled (+105.4%) to Rs.6.39bn (26% share vs 14%), on wins in thermal, renewable, combined cycle, utility, geothermal and value-add services.
• SADC gas turbine contract via the South African subsidiary — with one of the largest utility providers in the SADC region and a European partner supplying components, technology and IP; potential of $80-90mn over 4-5 years (FY 2026-2027 onward), offtake dependent on overhaul requirements.
• Q2 domestic booking roughly 2x Q1 FY27 — per CMO Manikandan Rajendran, Q1 was weak on delayed order finalization in cement and steel; considerable international orders also secured in the 5 weeks prior to the call.
• Aftermarket order-to-execution cycles explain the revenue lag — spares 3-4 months, servicing ~1 quarter, refurbishment 5-6 up to 9-12 months; current high value-add refurbishment orders carry ~3-quarter delivery cycles.
• Management endorsed Rs.7-8bn per quarter as a reasonable steady-state order booking run rate going into FY28, while noting exact quarterly outcomes are difficult to predict.

Share Loss Concentrated in Larger Turbines; Thermal Tailwinds Intact

• Domestic share loss confined to the 40-50 MW band — management attributed it to demand mix (in steel, a competitor holds a historically higher share); no new competitors have entered and management said it will make entries into that space.
• Domestic order inflow has run ~Rs.1,100 crore in each of FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26 and ~Rs.580 crore in H1 FY27 (cited by analyst Amit Anwani, PL Capital); Nikhil Sawhney acknowledged share declined YoY even as the domestic market grew, principally driven by the metal segment.
• Domestic demand confidence rests on thermal ordering — boiler feed pump drives are Triveni's segment, with growth also seen in commodity and process cogeneration; CEO S.N. Prasad cited the 80 GW capacity addition (period unspecified) as a drive-turbine opportunity.
• >100 MW OEM entry undecided — Triveni already has orders from global OEMs for manufacturing in this space, but becoming an OEM in larger turbines has not been taken up by the board; may be pursued strategically only if opportunities are sustained.
• Middle East inquiries dipped in H1 FY27 amid the warlike situation — with war threats receding, management hopes the pipeline increases in Q3-Q4 FY27; Prasad anticipates more power-generation than drive-turbine demand.
• Bids to EPCs for ultra power plants expected to move to order finalization in Q4 FY27 — per CMO Manikandan Rajendran, inquiries for large thermal power plants are active.

First US Data Center Win; Combined Cycle and Electrification Themes

• First US data center order received in Q2 FY27 — earlier expected within FY 2026-2027; a combined cycle operation with a data center as end user; management remains agnostic to end use, with the application being the key interest.
• Combined cycle order is 2 x 25 MW (50 MW) — sitting in front of a 150 MW gas turbine plant on a 3:1 basis; quoted directly to the client at average export-market pricing, with margins described as multiples of domestic margins.
• Combined cycle is currently less than 5% of the inquiry book (as of Q2 FY27, per CEO Prasad); management does not expect very rapid growth in this market (period unspecified) and flagged it as a tough market to enter.
• US inquiry visibility has risen quite substantially — split between data center combined-cycle and other industrial; Sawhney flagged novel energy storage and carbon capture projects as more sustainable demand than short-term power generation.
• US wins in the first five weeks of Q3 FY27 — energy storage projects plus industrial process cogeneration orders at the same pricing; end users/data centers remain confidential until detailed engineering.
• US subsidiary to remain aftermarket-focused over the next 5 years — any change conditional on return on equity and capital employed on investments already made; refurbishment visibility is more limited, and management is hopeful of greater order visibility as quarters pick up.
• Central/South America inquiries declined — possibly driven by political considerations and elections; Southeast Asia, Europe and India largely flat, with a strong overall theme toward electrification.

Mini-EPC Scope Raises Working Capital and Viability Questions

• NTPC commissioning expected within Q4 FY27 — ~15% of order value remains to be billed, spread equally between Q3 and Q4 FY27; management said it will not impact margins given significantly larger export and aftermarket contribution in those quarters.
• The NTPC project exemplifies Triveni's "mini EPC" solution orientation — per Nikhil Sawhney, getting closer to customer demand enables Triveni to drive demand more than as a pure steam turbine manufacturer.
• No additional R&D capital required — but the company needs better vendor engineering and cycle engineering to take guarantees on the entire scope.
• Solution-led projects are more working capital intensive — management stated it must maintain financial discipline and only provide solutions where Triveni has technology leadership, to retain margins, cost structure and return metrics.
• Follow-up NTPC orders premature to comment on — cost increases raise viability questions and the order must first be commissioned to demonstrate committed performance; management indicated it may be able to answer after Q4 FY27.
• No similar projects currently being pursued — though many ongoing conversations exist in the broad energy storage space; management's intent is that solutions should not be one-off but validate capabilities and enable scaling of the market by itself.

H2 Recovery Expected; FY27 Guidance Reiterated, FY28 Seen as Bigger Avenue

• FY27 guidance reiterated — management expects "some growth" in FY 2026-2027 over FY 2025-2026 driven by execution commitments (did not confirm the analyst's mid-single-digit-to-double-digit framing), with FY27 profitability higher than FY26 though "not be significant".
• Consolidated FY27 EBITDA guided roughly consistent with FY26 — CFO Lalit Agarwal concurred ("around that"), comprising a mix of operating income and other income performance.
• H2 FY27 margins expected significantly healthier on product mix — recovery weighted more to Q4 than Q3 FY27; management did not explicitly endorse the analyst's 20%+ normalized EBITDA margin reference for FY 2026-2027.
• Management declined to confirm ~25%+ H2 FY27 growth — stating the full-year FY27 indication already provided was sufficient to work it out.
• Commodity price increases that disrupted Q1 FY27 will normalize by Q4 FY27 — providing better visibility for FY28; new advanced platforms with significantly better cost will positively impact margins in coming quarters as they roll out.
• FY28 expected to provide a greater avenue for growth — with order booking visibility for FY28 cited; ~80% of the order book at the start of a financial year is typically executed within that same year (general norm, period unspecified).
• New technology revenue streams remain 3-4 years away — from the Q2 FY27 call, significant contribution to turnover is still distant; Triveni will remain a focused steam turbine company with no strategic diversification into combined cycle or BFW-type packages.