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CESC Ltd Q2 FY27 Results Analysis: PAT Falls 1.17%, Margin Compresses 141 bps

Cofacto Research Published November 05, 2026 4 min read
Negative

CESC Ltd's Q2 FY27 numbers came in soft, with revenue of Rs. 5,607.00 Cr (+6.46% YoY) and PAT growth of -1.17% YoY. Here's a quick read of what worked, what to watch, and what management said.

Quick Details
Results dateNovember 05, 2026
Revenue (Q2)Rs. 5,607.00 Cr (+6.46% YoY)
PAT (Q2)Rs. 423.00 Cr (-1.17% YoY)
EBITDA margin21.04% (-141 bps YoY)
EPS (Q2)Rs. 3.20 (-0.93% YoY)

Quarter Snapshot

CESC delivered 6.46% YoY revenue growth but owner PAT fell 1.17% as power purchase costs rose 14.25% YoY and the effective tax rate stepped up to 25.26%. Operating EBITDA margin compressed 141 bps to 21.04%, H1 free cash flow was negative Rs.626 crore, and the regulatory-asset stock grew to Rs.9,014 crore even as regulatory income declined 8.5% in H1. Near-term performance hinges on procurement-cost pass-through and the ReNew acquisition closing targeted for November 21, 2026.

Q2 FY27 Expectations vs Results

DriverExpected before resultsWhat happenedVerdict
RevenueModerate single-digit YoY growth+6.46% YoYPlayed out
MarginsCompression, pressure back-loaded to September spot spikeMargin 21.04%, −141 bps YoY; CoE +14.25% YoYPlayed out
FuelFlat-to-up, reversing FY26 tailwind+2.65% YoY, +4.89% QoQPlayed out
Finance costQ1 tailwind fades−0.59% YoY vs −14% in Q1Played out
Regulatory incomeQ1's Rs.180 Cr as base; the swing factorRs.99 crore (below Q1, above YoY); Rs.80 Cr H1 prudence provisionPartially
ReNew closingMid-November completion on trackSPA open at results date, Nov 21 target intactPlayed out
One-time: prudence provisionRs.40 Cr flagged for Q1Rs.80 Cr for H1 per filing → Rs.40 Cr locked for Q2, normalized to Rs.452.9 CrPlayed out
ReNew funding / Malegaon / solar-capex inflationWatch items for the callNot addressed in the filing — remain openNot observable

Read our full results preview.

Management Guidance vs Delivery

What management saidWhereWhat happenedVerdict
ReNew 1.4 GWp completion — Nov 21, 2026 (revised from Oct 31)Company SPA amendment announcements, Oct 31, 2026SPA in filing subject to conditions precedent; not closed at results dateOn Track
Group capex ~Rs.350 bn / distribution capex Rs.6,000 Cr over 5 yearsQ1 FY27 investor presentationH1 consolidated PPE/CWIP Rs.2,010 crore vs Rs.1,104 crore (+82%)On Track
Renewables Phase 1: 3.2 GW by FY29; Phase 2: 10 GW by FY32FY26 annual report / investor presentationsNot updated in this filingToo Early
PAT 2x FY25 (Rs.1,429 Cr) and ROE +400 bps by 2030Vision 2030 investor presentationQ2 owners PAT Rs.423 crore, −1.17% YoY; H1 +0.86%Too Early
Malegaon breakeven "over next 3 years"Q2 FY26 investor presentationNo DF data in filingToo Early
Solar manufacturing 3 GW by 2027Investor presentationsNot updated in this filingToo Early

Key Investment Insights

Key Positives

  • Consolidated revenue grew 6.46% YoY to Rs.5,607 crore and 2.22% QoQ
  • Standalone PAT grew 5.79% YoY to Rs.256 crore; standalone EBITDA rose 9.03% QoQ with margin recovering to 23.38% from Q1's 20.72%
  • Normalized PAT-to-owners of Rs.452.9 crore grew 5.82% YoY after adding back the Rs.40 crore Q2 prudence provision
  • CFO/PAT of 1.61x indicates healthy cash conversion of earnings
  • H1 capex of Rs.2,010 crore, up 82% YoY, tracking the ~Rs.350 bn group capex plan
  • Finance costs were flat YoY at Rs.335 crore (−0.59%) and depreciation fell 4.82% YoY

Risk Factors

  • Cost of energy purchased rose 14.25% YoY, more than twice revenue growth, compressing Operating EBITDA margin 141 bps YoY to 21.04%
  • Owner PAT declined 1.17% YoY to Rs.423 crore; EPS excluding regulatory income fell 13.42% YoY to Rs.2.58
  • ETR rose to 25.26% from 21.27% YoY, with a Rs.35 crore deferred-tax swing from credit to charge
  • H1 free cash flow was negative Rs.626 crore; cash fell from Rs.4,208 crore to Rs.2,764 crore and net debt reached Rs.19,253 crore
  • Regulatory deferral balance grew 4.02% in H1 to Rs.9,014 crore while H1 net regulatory income fell 8.5% YoY
  • Trade receivables rose 31.54% vs Mar-26 to Rs.3,178 crore
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Disclaimer: This results analysis is published for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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